Smart Economy

Foresight Course: Beyond ‘Business as Usual’ ; Manchester, 29 June - 3 July 2009

Foresight: Beyond ‘Business as Usual’ 
A Course for Sponsors and Practitioners of Foresight 

Foresight Course 2009
Manchester, 29 June - 3 July 2009

The current financial turmoil is not a surprise: would the application of foresight have helped to minimise its effects? Can foresight provide navigation through these turbulent times into a new era beyond 'business as usual'?  The Manchester Institute of Innovation Research (MIoIR - formerly PREST)'s Eleventh Annual foresight training course will provide a concentrated and intensive, practically-orientated learning experience to prepare participants for the use of foresight to anticipate change to a new era. Participants will learn how to recognise and interpret possible future changes
involving social, technological, economic, ecological, political and human values and their interdependencies.

The course is aimed at people whose present or likely future position as:

• a sponsor of foresight projects;
• a foresight practitioner;
• an entrepreneur;
• a senior manager or company director; will enable them to affect the future of business, government or Non-Governmental
Organisations.

The course has a strong emphasis on the practical use of foresight. There will be parallel streams of lectures and practical work that enable participants to experience the relevance and the realities of foresight activity. The course is residential and is held in Manchester. We can extend its reach to participants in other parts of the world by video-streaming the course  sessions over the Internet and by providing electronic teaching resources.  The course draws upon MIoIR's extensive experience
of organising, consulting, researching and teaching/training in foresight activities across Europe, Latin America, Africa and the Far East. Direct assistance has been given to more than a dozen countries' national Foresight exercises. In research and training MIoIR has a continuing close co-operation with the EC and UNIDO.  

Facilitating foresight activities in public and private organisations is also a continuing feature of the Institutes work. The Institute's unique position in foresight activity has resulted in wide international participation in the course by people from: Canada, the Caribbean, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Hungary, Indonesia, Iran, Ireland, Latin America, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Malta, The Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the Russian Federation, South Africa, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Thailand, Turkey, the UK and many other countries.

For Further Information please contact
Lisa Gledhill (Course Administrator)
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
MBS Harold Hankins
The University of Manchester
Email: lisa.gledhill@mbs.ac.uk

Or vist our website at http://www.mbs.ac.uk/research/engineeringpolicy/courses/foresight.aspx

Please note:- Deadline for applications is Monday 26th June 2009

We look forward to hearing from you. Please feel free to forward this flyer to colleagues who may have an interested in this course.

Kind regards,
Foresight Course Organisers
If you would prefer not to receive future e-mails regarding our Foresight Course, please send a short email to
lisa.gledhill@mbs.ac.uk and we will remove your name from our mailing list. Thank you.

Mrs Lisa Gledhill
PA to Professor Luke Georghiou
Research Support Officer - MIoIR
Manchester Institute of Innovation Research
MBS Harold Hankins Building
Manchester Business School
The University of Manchester
Oxford Road
Manchester, M13 9PL

Tel: +44 161 275 5921
Fax: +44 161 275 0923
e-mail: Lisa.Gledhill@manchester.ac.uk

Opportunity Clinic Workshop at OCAD, Toronto, Friday June 19, 2009

Recession-proofing your business, NGO, not-for-profit  for difficult economic times.

Learn how to not just survive, but thrive in a recession.

Sponsored by the Canadian Innovation Center, Waterloo (www.innovationcenter.ca)

 The Opportunity Clinic© workshop by Walter Derzko  is based on the book-Hard Times Golden Opportunities 45 Great Business Scenarios to Show You How to Profit from Opportunities that Arise in Challenging Times. The workshop profiles the forty-five Opportunity Windows specific to the recession that are presented in detail in the book. These generic  Opportunity Windows, which can be used and applied by any business, not-for-profit, NGO or government are the product of the Opportunity Clinic© which enables entrepreneurs and managers to 1) navigate the uncertainties in economic downturns; 2) use the Clinic’s framework to scan for, design and evaluate emerging new opportunity spaces; and 3) thrive and not just survive in a recession.

The January19th 2009 issue of Business Week states: “History has shown that crisis breeds opportunity… in times of turmoil, opportunities abound. But taking advantage of them will require [a new mindset], fast reflexes, an aggressive attitude, and serious changes [challenges] to the status quo … bold moves in bad times can pay off big.”

Difficult economic times present challenges, risks and threats for most business owners, and especially science and technology-based enterprises that might have disruptive or unproven technology. Decisions that made sense as little as six months ago may turn disastrous in this climate. Chaos, change and uncertainty may lead to turmoil, but at the same time they present opportunity windows or scenarios for entrepreneurs who are opportunity-sensitive and opportunity-savvy to act on the change.

Date: Friday June 19, 2009; 8:45am to 3:30pm

Location: Ontario College of Art and Design, (OCAD), 100 McCaul  St, Toronto

Cost: $149 plus GST

Online registration:  <http://www.innovationcenter.ca/events/opportunity-clinic-workshop>

Printable form: <http://innovationcenter.ca/files/upload/Opportunity_Clinic_workshop_registration.pdf>

For information: call 416-819-9667

High population density triggers cultural explosions & innovations; Environment not Brains; Nature vs Nurture

Last year, I toured the Royal Ontario Museum exhibit in Toronto– Mysteries of Ancient Ukraine: The Remarkable Trypilian Culture (5400-2700 BC). What was even  more remarkable and mysterious  then the brilliant Trypilian cultural artifacts themselves, was the notion  of uniqueness--why this cultural innovation only existed in a tiny, small geographic area, on what is modern day Ukraine and not the rest of the globe-long before Egypt or Mexico or  Mesapotania?

 

No one seemed to have addressing this question in the exhibit nor is it covered in our modern day high school textbooks.

 

The Union Soviet (..read Russians)  had little to no motivation to promote these archeological discoveries to the rest of the world, which are as exciting as Egypt and which date back over 100 years to the late 1800's,  because of a cultural & political bias and propaganda perspective. Ukraine was considered by Russia's propaganda machine, as a "younger brother" to "mother Russia", and not the older, wiser culture. Seven centuries ago Russia was nothing more then barren,uninhabited swamp land. This is why the West is  only hearing about the Trypilian culture now, after the brakeup /collapse  of the Soviet Union.

 

Trypilion culture even pre-dates Egypt, the pyramids and the Inca's.

 

So I have to ask myself--Were Trypilians smarter then anyone else on the planet  those 7 centuries ago?  Was Tryplia the Silicon Valley of its time? I don't think so. I don't see any cognitive evidence to this affect.

 

Coincidently though , Trypillian culture also designed and built  the first large scale  cities in neolithic Europe, ranging in size up to 20,000 inhabitants. But, just as mysteriously 4.5 centuries ago, they disappeared from the face of the earth without a trace.

 

Researchers from University College London now seem to offer a partial explanation to address my curiosity.....high population density triggers cultural explosions & as well as reversals. So was Ukraine at the cross-roads of many neolithic cultures coming out of Africa and criss-crossing between Asia and Europe? The neolythic silks roads?

 

Increasing population density, rather than boosts in human brain power, appears to have catalyzed the emergence of modern human behaviour, according to a new study by UCL (University College London) scientists published in the journal Science. High population density leads to greater exchange of ideas and skills and prevents the loss of new innovations. It is this skill maintenance, combined with a greater probability of useful innovations, that led to modern human behaviour appearing at different times in different parts of the world. 

 

In the study, the UCL team found that complex skills learnt across generations can only be maintained when there is a critical level of interaction between people. Using computer simulations of social learning, they showed that high and low-skilled groups could coexist over long periods of time and that the degree of skill they maintained depended on local population density or the degree of migration between them. Using genetic estimates of population size in the past, the team went on to show that density was similar in sub-Saharan Africa, Europe and the Middle-East when modern behaviour first appeared in each of these regions. The paper also points to evidence that population density would have dropped for climatic reasons at the time when modern human behaviour temporarily disappeared in sub-Saharan Africa.

Adam Powell, AHRC Centre for the Evolution of Cultural Diversity, says: "Our paper proposes a new model for why modern human behaviour started at different times in different regions of the world, why it disappeared in some places before coming back, and why in all cases it occurred more than 100,000 years after modern humans first appeared.

"By modern human behaviour, we mean a radical jump in technological and cultural complexity, which makes our species unique. This includes symbolic behavior, such as abstract and realistic art, and body decoration using threaded shell beads, ochre or tattoo kits; musical instruments; bone, antler and ivory artefacts; stone blades; and more sophisticated hunting and trapping technology, like bows, boomerangs and nets.

Professor Stephen Shennan, UCL Institute of Archaeology, says: "Modern humans have been around for at least 160,000 to 200,000 years but there is no archaeological evidence of any technology beyond basic stone tools until around 90,000 years ago. In Europe and western Asia this advanced technology and behaviour explodes around 45,000 years ago when humans arrive there, but doesn't appear in eastern and southern Asia and Australia until much later, despite a human presence. In sub-Saharan Africa the situation is more complex. Many of the features of modern human behaviour – including the first abstract art – are found some 90,000 years ago but then seem to disappear around 65,000 years ago, before re-emerging some 40,000 years ago.

Dr Mark Thomas, UCL Genetics, Evolution and Environment, says: "When we think of how we came to be the sophisticated creatures we are, we often imagine some sudden critical change, a bit like when the black monolith appears in the film 2001: A Space Odyssey. In reality, there is no evidence of a big change in our biological makeup when we started behaving in an intelligent way. Our model can explain this even if our mental capacities are the same today as they were when we first originated as a species some 200,000 years ago.

"Ironically, our finding that successful innovation depends less on how smart you are than how connected you are seems as relevant today as it was 90,000 years ago."

Full story here>>[...]

.....So was it climate change that killed off the Trypilians or did they integrate into another neolithic culture in Europe?

Walter Derzko,

Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Warrior gene or monoamine oxidase A (MAOA), linked to gang membership, weapon use

Teen boys who carry a particular variation of the gene Monoamine oxidase A (MAOA), sometimes called the "warrior gene," known as a 'low-activity 3-repeat allele, are more likely not only to join gangs but also to be among the most violent members and to use weapons, according to a new study from The Florida State University that is the first to confirm an MAOA link specifically to gangs and guns. Findings apply only to males. Girls with the same variant of the MAOA gene seem resistant to its potentially violent effects on gang membership and weapon use.

 

"Previous research has linked low-activity MAOA variants to a wide range of antisocial, even violent, behavior, but our study confirms that these variants can predict gang membership,"said researchers. "Moreover, we found that variants of this gene could distinguish gang members who were markedly more likely to behave violently and use weapons from members who were less likely to do either."

The MAOA gene affects levels of neurotransmitters such as dopamine and serotonin that are related to mood and behavior, and those variants that are related to violence are hereditary. Some previous studies have found the "warrior gene" to be more prevalent in cultures that are typified by warfare and aggression.

 

It would be interesting to see if certain cultures (the mafia) or nations such as Russia or Mongolia (think back to the mongol hords or invading russian principalities), who have historically been more aggressive then their neighbors,  have a predominence of this gene.

 

Full study here>>[...]

 

Walter Derzko

Soap-sniffing technology encourages hand washing to reduce hospital-acquired infections & save money

Using sensors capable of detecting drugs in breath, new technology developed at University of Florida

monitors health-care workers' hand hygiene by detecting sanitizer or soap fumes given off from their hands. By reminding workers to clean their hands to remove disease-causing organisms such as the bacteria MRSA, the system could help reduce hospital-acquired infections.

Source:  Annual Meeting, US Association for Professionals in Infection Control and Epidemiology  June 3, 2009

Smart Pill measures pH levels in digestive tract

NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Study Uses SmartPill Capsule in Ulcerative Colitis Patients, Finding Acidic Conditions in Their Colons

An electronic diagnostic tool called the SmartPill is swallowed by patients in order to take measurements as it travels through the gastrointestinal tract. A new study by physician-scientists at NewYork-Presbyterian/Weill Cornell Medical Center used the device in patients with mild to moderate ulcerative colitis (UC), determining that they have significantly more acidic pH in their colons, compared with the average person — a finding that may impact treatment strategy.

The study was presented today at the Digestive Disease Week (DDW) meeting in Chicago, Ill.

Full story here >> [...]

Walter Derzko, 

Smart Economy, Toronto 

Magneto-seismic techniques developed to forecast space storms

Yesterday,  we explore the impacts of solar storms or solar flares that periodically bombard the earth. A team from the University of Alberta has develped an early warning system for such storms...like an advanced  geiger counter for space or "space seismology". Specifically they are exploring magnetic disturbances that help predict the arrival of a space storm.

A  team of researchers at the University of Alberta in Edmonton Canada has broken new ground in outer space by pinpointing the impact epicentre of an earthbound space storm as it crashes into the atmosphere and giving an advance warning that it's on the way...a key capability that wasn't available before. In 1989, a powerful solar storm knocked out power in the Canadian povince of Quebec for 9 hours.

The studies, using data from the NASA THEMIS mission, reveal that magnetic blast waves can be used to pinpoint and predict the location at the edge of space where space storms dissipate their energy. The technique can be considered as the seismology of space, the epicentre marking the location where the energy equivalent to 50 gigawatts of power, or the output of 10 of the world's largest power stations, is dumped into the atmosphere.

Physicists Jonathan Rae and Ian Mann are leading the U of A research team that has found the epicenter of impact. Their team is using ground stations spread across northern Canada and the five satellites of the THEMIS project to pick up magnetic disturbances as the storm crashes into the atmosphere. With information from the "space seismology" the researchers look for the eye of the storm, hundreds of thousands of kilometres above the Earth.

"We see the benevolent side of space storms in form of the northern lights," said Mann. "When electrically charged particles speed towards Earth and buffet the atmosphere, the result is often a dancing shimmering light over the polar region."

The U of A team has also determined that the magnetic tremors show that the space storm impact into the atmosphere has a unique epicentre. The eye of the storm is in deep space, far past the orbits of most communication satellites. Guided by the earth's magnetic field, the magnetic tremors rocket through space towards the planet. These disturbances trigger magnetic sensors on the ground as they impact the atmosphere at the edge of space. The space storm's effects, and the most spectacular displays of the northern lights, follow a few minutes later. The earth is protected from the most damaging direct effects of the radiation from these space storms by its atmosphere, but in space there is nowhere to hide. High-energy electrically charged particles released in space storms can disable spacecraft, interrupt radio communications and GPS navigation, and damage electric power grids.

Probing the eye of a space storm and recognizing the advance warning signs are crucial for researchers trying to understand space weather. Key questions about when and how space storms start are still challenging researchers on the THEMIS team. Like forecasters on Earth who predict severe weather, the University of Alberta researchers are now using these magneto-seismic techniques to investigate methods to forecast space storms.

Source: University of Alberta

Walter Derzko              

When will the recession end? Part 27 The Sun could create a double dip depression

New Solar Cycle 24 Prediction: Fewer Sunspots, But Severe Mass Coronal Ejection (MCE) Activity possible.

 

In the past, human populations have survived 7 climate change-related mass extinction events...James Lovelock reminds us...but are we more vulnerable now and less resilient as a society?

 

Now privately, some scientists are quietly predicting two imminant wild card possibilities-a mini ice age, that could punctuate global warming,  if sun spots do not pick up in the next solar spot cycle and the distinct possibility of severe solar storms. At the extreme, both events could cause billions of deaths in a worst case scenario that we looked at last month.

 

Publically, an  international panel of experts has released a new prediction for the next solar cycle, stating that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013with a below-average number of sunspots. Led by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and sponsored by NASA, the panel includes a dozen members from nine different government and academic institutions. Their forecast sets the stage for at least another year of mostly quiet conditions before solar activity resumes in earnest [..they hope].

 

 

This plot of sunspot numbers shows the measured peak of the last solar cycle (Solar Cycle 23) in blue and the predicted peak of the next solar cycle (24) in red. Credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center.

 

"If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Prediction Center, Boulder, Colo.

 It is tempting to describe such a cycle as "weak" or "mild," but that could give the wrong impression. "Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather,"says Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."

The 1859 storm -- named the "Carrington Event" after astronomer Richard Carrington who witnessed the instigating solar flare -- electrified transmission cables, set fires in telegraph offices, and produced Northern Lights so bright that people could read newspapers by their red and green glow. A recent report by the National Academy of Sciences found that if a similar storm occurred today, it could cause $1 to 2 trillion in damages to society’s high-tech infrastructure and require four to ten years for complete recovery. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina caused $80 to 125 billion in damage.

 

 

The latest forecast revises a prediction issued in 2007, when a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 and would be followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models of the solar cycle produced different forecasts, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.

"It turns out that none of the models were really correct,"says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. NASA’s lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."

Yearly-averaged sunspot numbers from 1610 to 2000. Researchers believe upcoming Solar Cycle 24 will be similar to the cycle that peaked in 1928, marked in red. Credit: NASA/MSFC

Astronomers first noted the solar cycle in the mid-1800s. Graphs of sunspot numbers resemble a roller coaster, going up and down with an approximately 11-year period. Predicting the peaks and valleys has proven troublesome because cycles vary in length from 9 to 14 years. Some peaks are high, others low. The valleys are usually brief, lasting only a couple of years, but sometimes they stretch much longer. In the 17th century, the sun plunged into a 70-year period of spotless quiet known as the Maunder Minimum (mini ice age) that still baffles scientists.

At a recent climate change symposium at Monash University in Australia, David Archibald, an expert in solar cycles stated:

“You haven’t seen any sign of the end of Solar Cycle 23 yet and the cooling over Solar
Cycle 24 as a consequence may be as much as 2.8 degrees centigrade. We are due for a de Vries cycle cooling event every two hundred and ten years, and actually even a Bond event because the last one of those was in the Dark Ages. And severe cooling over the next twenty years is now a certainty.” 

Right now, the solar cycle is in a valley--the deepest of the past century. In 2008 and 2009, the sun set Space Age records for low sunspotcounts, weak solar wind, and low solar irradiance. The sun has gone more than two years without a significant solar flare.

"In our professional careers, we’ve never seen anything quite like it," says Pesnell. "Solar minimum has lasted far beyond what we predicted in 2007."

 

 

In recent months, however, the sun has begun to show signs of life. Small sunspots and "proto-sunspots" are popping up with increasing frequency. Enormous currents of plasma on the sun’s surface ("zonal flows") are gaining strength and slowly drifting toward the sun’s equator. Radio astronomers have detected a tiny but significant uptick in solar radio emissions. All these things are precursors of an awakening Solar Cycle 24 and form the basis for the panel’s new, almost unanimous forecast.

 

 

According to the forecast, the sun should remain generally calm for at least another year. From a research point of view, that’s good news because solar minimum has proven to be more interesting than anyone imagined. Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth’s poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.

 

Meanwhile, the sun pays little heed to human committees. There could be more surprises, panelists acknowledge, and more revisions to the forecast.

"Go ahead and mark your calendar for May 2013," says Pesnell. "But use a pencil."

Source: Marshall Space Flight Center

Walter Derzko

Neural mechanisms of strategic decision making; Go or No-Go?

New research demonstrates that when faced with a difficult decision, the human brain calls upon multiple neural systems that code for different sorts of behaviors and strategies.

The study, published by Cell Press in the May 28th issue of the journal Neuron, provides intriguing insight into the mechanisms that help the human brain rise to the formidable challenge of adaptive decision making in the real world.

"When faced with a complex decision, many individuals engage in simplifying strategies, such as choosing based on the probability of a positive outcome," explains senior study author Dr. Scott Huettel from the Brain Imaging and Analysis Center at Duke University. "Although we now know much about how the brain encodes specific decision factors like risk and reward, much less is known about the brain selects among multiple strategies for managing the computational demands of a complex decision-making task."

To distinguish brain regions that predict specific choices from those areas that predict an individual's preferred strategy, Dr. Huettel and colleagues used behavioral tests and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to study participants engaging in a complex risky choice task. The task involved economic gambles with multiple outcomes ranging from large monetary losses to large monetary gains. Subjects chose between different ways of changing the gambles: they could maximize the best possible gain, minimize the worst possible loss, or increase the overall probability of winning.

 

Choices that maximized gains or minimized losses were predicted by fMRI activation in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex or anterior insula, respectively, whereas probability-maximizing choices were associated with activation in the parietal and lateral prefrontal cortices. However, individuals differed in their strategic bias: some people were very focused on gains and losses, while others were very focused on the probability of winning.

Whether an individual expressed these biases in a particular decision was predicted by activation in the dorsomedial prefrontal cortex, which exhibited functional connectivity to the regions associated with specific choices.

 

Further, the intrinsic strategic bias of each person—whether they were focused on rewards or probabilities—was predicted by an independent measure of how strongly their brain responded to unexpected gains and losses.

 

Importantly, decision parameters estimated using traditional economic models of risky choice were poor predictors of choices in this new experimental paradigm, supporting the idea that individuals indeed engaged in simplifying strategies.

 

"Our findings indicate that the neural mechanisms of choice reflect more than competition between decision variables; they additionally involve strategic influences that guide decisions differently across individuals," offers Dr. Huettel.

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Nowcasting (vs Forecasting); NASA uses satellite to unearth innovation in crop forecasting

Soil moisture is essential for seeds to germinate and for crops to grow. But record droughts and scorching temperatures in certain parts of the globe in recent years have caused soil to dry up, crippling crop production. The falling food supply in some regions has forced prices upward, pushing staple foods out of reach for millions of poor people.

NASA researchers are using satellite data to deliver a kind of space-based humanitarian assistance. They are cultivating the most accurate estimates of soil moisture – the main determinant of crop yield changes – and improving global forecasts of how well food will grow at a time when the world is confronting shortages.

 

During a presentation this week at the the Joint Assembly of the American Geophysical Union in Toronto, NASA scientist John Bolten described a new modeling product that uses data from the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) sensor on NASA's Aqua satellite to improve the accuracy of West African soil moisture. The group produced assessments of current soil moisture conditions, or "nowcasts," and improved estimates by 5 percent over previous methods. Though seemingly small and incremental, the increase can make a big difference in the precision of crop forecasts, Bolten said.

The modeling innovation comes at a time when crop analysts at agencies like the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are working to meet the food shortage problem head on. They combine soil moisture estimates with weather trends to produce up-to-date forecasts of crop harvests. Those estimates help regional and national officials prepare for and prevent food crises.

 

"Many developing countries are relying on limited and highly variable water resources," said researchers. "And typically those same regions don't have adequate ground station data or crop-estimating agencies capable of making reliable production forecasts."

By definition, the severity of agricultural drought is determined by root-zone soil water content. So Bolten's satellite-driven boost to root-zone soil moisture prediction also directly improves drought monitoring. And Bolten says results from AMSR-E are just a precursor to dramatic new improvements in data and prediction accuracy researchers expect from the Soil Moisture Active and Passive satellite, slated to launch in 2013.

Food reserves are at their lowest level in 30 years, according to the United Nations World Food Program, putting the world's 1 billion poorest people most at risk. Prices for wheat, rice, and corn have more than doubled in the last 24 months, hitting countries like Haiti, Bangladesh, and Burkina Faso

the hardest. And the U.S.is not unaffected -- drought in 2008 led to an estimated $1.1 billion in crop losses in Texas alone.

"This advance is making it possible for us to do our job in a more precise way," said Curt Reynolds, a crop analyst for the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service in Washington. "We plan to make NASA's soil moisture information available to commodity markets, traders, agricultural producers, and policymakers through our Crop Explorer Web site."

 

 

Full story here >>

 

 

Walter Derzko,

Smart Economy,

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-published book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

 

 

Study finds that multivitamin use linked to younger ‘biological age’

The cells of multivitamin users may have a younger biological age than cells from non-users, according to new research led by Honglei Chen, MD, PhD from National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences

 

Researchers looked at the length of telomeres, DNA sequences at the end of chromosomes that shorten as cells replicate and age.  The ageing and lifespan of normal, healthy cells are linked to the so-called telomerase shortening mechanism, which limits cells to a fixed number of divisions. During cell replication, the telomeres function by ensuring the cell's chromosomes do not fuse with each other or rearrange, which can lead to cancer. Elizabeth Blackburn, a telomere pioneer at the University of California San Francisco, likened telomeres to the ends of shoelaces, without which the lace would unravel.

With each replication the telomeres shorten, and when the telomeres are totally consumed, the cells are destroyed (apoptosis). Previous studies have also reported that telomeres are highly susceptible to oxidative stress.

Dr Chen and his co-workers noted that telomere length may therefore be a marker of biological ageing, and that multivitamins may beneficially affect telomere length via modulation of oxidative stress and chronic inflammation.  According to results published in the new issue of the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, the telomeres of daily multivitamin users may be on average 5.1 per cent longer than in non-users.

 

“To our knowledge, this was the first epidemiologic study of multivitamin use and telomere length,” wrote Dr Chen . “Regular multivitamin users tend to follow a healthy lifestyle and have a higher intake of micronutrients, which sometimes makes it difficult to interpret epidemiologic observations on multivitamin use."

According to a National Institutes of Health (NIH) State-of-the-Science Panel, half of the American population routinely use dietary supplements, with their annual spend estimated at over $20 billion.

Recent results of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey showed that 35 per cent of the US adult population regularly consumes one or more types of multivitamin products (Am. J. Epidemiol., 2004, Vol. 160, Pages 339-349).

 

Source: American Journal of Clinical Nutrition; June 2009, Volume 89, Number 6, Pages 1857-1863, doi:10.3945/ajcn.2008.26986"Multivitamin use and telomere length in women" Authors: Q. Xu, C.G.Parks, L.A.DeRoo, R.M. Cawthon, D.P. Sandler, H. Chen

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

 

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Most people, by nature are all universally optimistic

Study indicates people by nature are universally optimistic

Despite calamities from economic recessions, wars and famine to a flu epidemic afflicting the Earth, a new study from the University of Kansas and Gallupindicates that humans are by nature optimistic.

The study, to be presented Sunday, May 24, 2009, at the annual meeting of the Association for Psychological Science in San Francisco, found optimism to be universal and borderless.

Data from the Gallup World Poll drove the findings, with adults in more than 140 countries providing a representative sample of 95 percent of the world's population. The sample included more than 150,000 adults.

Eighty-nine percent of individuals worldwide expect the next five years to be as good or better than their current life, and 95 percent of individuals expected their life in five years to be as good or better than their life was five years ago.

"These results provide compelling evidence that optimism is a universal phenomenon," said Matthew Gallagher, a psychology doctoral candidate at the University of Kansas and lead researcher of the study.

At the country level, optimism is highest in Ireland, Brazil, Denmark, and New Zealand and lowest in Zimbabwe, Egypt, Haiti and Bulgaria. The United States ranks number 10 on the list of optimistic countries.

Demographic factors (age and household income) appear to have only modest effects on individual levels of optimism.

Source: University of Kansas Press Release

Walter Derzko. Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

World's most powerful, highest-resolution, commercial satellite: GeoEye-1

World's most powerful, highest-resolution, commercial satellite- GeoEye-1

Since the early 1960s, super powerful spy satellites have been the stuff of the military and intelligence communities. Now two U.S. companies have launched commercial imaging satellites that offer the same sort of space-based images of the Earth to the public. One of these companies, GeoEye of Dulles, Va., launched a multi-million dollar satellite last year, and it's the highest-resolution commercial imaging satellite in the world.

From its vantage point of 425 miles in space, the 4,300-pound GeoEye-1 satellite orbits the Earth and focuses its powerful lens on the surface below, snapping electronic images that can resolve objects on the ground as small as 41 cm across (16 inches). That's approximately the size of home plate on a baseball diamond. These images are typically processed and sold to the military for mapping and to companies like Google, which makes them available to the public through its platform Google Earth. (Because of federal regulations, the publicly-available images are slightly lower resolution -- approximately 50 cm).

In Baltimore at next week's CLEO/IQEC, GeoEye's Systems Engineering Director Michael Madden will describe some of the satellite's key features, such as the fact that it's the first commercial satellite with military-grade star trackers, which along with GPS makes the imagery from the satellite very accurate -- an important aspect for making precise maps. He will also preview the satellite GeoEye-2, which is expected to be launched around 2012 and would have a ground resolution twice as fine as GeoEye-1.

These powerful public eyes in the sky have already had an impact. Madden says for instance, a researcher at the University of California, San Diego is using satellite imagery to search for the tomb of Genghis Khan in Mongolia. A few months ago, one of the enduring photos taken during U.S. President Barack Obama's inauguration was the image captured by GeoEye-1 of the National Mall in Washington, D.C., which showed throngs of people crowded together. In March 2009, the GeoEye-1 satellite captured a close-up image of a North Korean missile sitting on the launch pad just 25 minutes before launch. GeoEye-1 also provided a look at the annual Cherry Blossom Festival held in Washington, D.C.

From the space photo, details were clear enough to resolve individual trees, ripples on the Potomac River, and people and cars crowded along the Tidal Basin, the area in downtown Washington, D.C.where the festival takes place.

Source: 2009 Conference on Lasers and Electro-Optics/International Quantum Electronics Conference (CLEO/IQEC) May 31 to June 5 at the BaltimoreConvention Center in Baltimore. Presentation PWB4; Wednesday, June 3, 6:15 – 6:45 p.m.

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto.

Healing injuries with laser light -photonic scaffolds a.k.a Star Trek?

Remember those Star Trek scanners from the 1960's TV show, that fix injuries with beams of light? Well, they  may not be science fiction after all. A new optical technology that lines up living cells and controls their movements has opened the door to better artificial tissues and wounds that heal faster with less scarring.

For years, scientists have used the energy in laser light to drill microscopic holes or as tweezers or traps to direct and maneuver small pieces of matter. Guiding entire cells, though, has proven difficult because the lasers used for manipulation tend to damage the structural units of living organisms.

Now Aristide Dogariu and colleagues at the University of Central Florida in Orlando have developed an optical procedure that does not harm cells, but affects their skeletons – an ensemble of slender rods made out of an abundant protein called actin. The actin rods are constantly growing and shrinking inside of cells. The direction in which they grow changes the cell's membrane shape and dictates where the cell moves.

Dogariu and colleagues use the polarization of optical waves to create a field around the cells in which the growing actin rods line up like a compass in the Earth's magnetic field. These optical fields can be used to guide large groups of cells to line up and move in the same direction.

The technique could be useful for cancer assays, which test the motility of cells, or as a non-invasive, non-toxic boost for regenerative medicine. Though cells have complicated and intriguing mechanisms to sense and communicate where an injury occurs, the possibility of using photonic scaffolds to stimulate and guide cells' motility to accelerate tissue repair, is now quite promising.

Source: 2009 Conference on Lasers and Electro-Optics/International Quantum Electronics Conference, May 31 to June 5 at the Baltimore Convention Center.Presentation CMMM2; Monday, June 1, 4 – 4:15 p.m.

What are the Best Countries for Business?

Forbes List of Best Countries for Business

The recession downturn has been ubiquitous across the globe, but Forbes recently published its fourth annual Best Countries for Business. The ranking, according to Forbes is a good indication of which nations will be in a better position than others to rebound from the current malaise.

 

Forbes  compiled operating conditions in 127 economies that suggest their ability to attract entrepreneurs, investors and workers. Factored in are a country's tax burden, red tape, investor protections, stock market performance, promotion of free trade and freedoms of expression and organization.

Denmark leads the pack for the second year in a row. The top three countries all advanced from last year’s rankings. Canada jumped 4 spots from 7^th to 3d  and Singapore from 8^th to 4^th. USAadvanced from 4^th to 2^nd spot. UK, Sweden,  Finland, Ireland and Switzerland  all retrenched from 2008 positions New to the top ten are Australia, Norway and New Zealand, which recently became the first developed country to sign a free-trade deal with China. Falling out of the top ten are Switzerland, Finland

and Ireland, which saw plans for a Guinness mega-brewery shelved as exports slowed.

Rank

'09     '08    Country

1       1      Denmark

2       4      United States

3       7      Canada

4       8      Singapore

5      12      New Zealand

6       5      United Kingdom

7       6      Sweden

8      13     Australia

9       9      Hong Kong/China

10    15     Norway

11    14     Netherlands

12    18     Belgium

13     3      Finland

14     2      Ireland

15    10     Switzerland

Source: Forbes; 4/27/2009, Vol. 183 Issue 8, p151

 

Walte Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

 

The first 3D football match in European football history

• On 24 April 2009, Orange will air an experimental broadcast of the first ever football match in 3D when OL (Olympique Lyonnais) meets PSG (Paris Saint-Germain)

• This Ligue 1 (French Premiere League) championship game will be broadcast live on 3D screens in Parc des Princes and Gerland stadium for supporters and football fans invited by Orange and the two clubs

• This European First showcases the Group's ability to innovate, particularly in the presentation and broadcasting of premium content

On Friday 24 April at 8:30 p.m. Orange will offer a live broadcast in 3D of the Ligue 1 match between OL and PSG. Dedicated areas will be set aside at Parc de Princes and Gerland stadium to allow supporters and invited fans to live all the thrills of this match and this exceptional experience on a 3D screen, using glasses.

For the first time in Europe, Orangewill deploy special equipment to produce a football match live and in 3D, including six stereoscopic cameras, a standalone production bus, and specialised 3D teams. This operation will be run in conjunction with the professional football league LFP and HBS, executive producer of the French Ligue 1.

First trialled by Orange in 2008 at the Roland Garros International Tennis Open, 3D broadcasting provides gripping involvement and incomparable emotion compared to normal TV.

The OL-PSG match will also be broadcast in high definition for Orange sport channel subscribers both on Orange TV ( Orange sport: channel 20)  and on orange.fr.

 

Full press release here>>>

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

Simulated Brain starting to think?

The BBC reports that a simulated brain experiment is getting closer to real thought. A detailed simulation of a small region of a brain built molecule by molecule has been constructed and has recreated experimental results from real brains.  The "Blue Brain" has been put in a virtual body, and observing it gives the first indications of the molecular and neural basis of thought and memory.  Scaling the simulation to the human brain is only a matter of money, says the project's head.  The work was presented this week at the European Future Technologies meeting in Prague

.

 Full story here>>

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

When will the recession / depression end ? part 26 If you can’t trust mainstream economists, who can you trust?

I’ve mentioned before that mainstream economists have a absolutely dismal record of predicting future recessions, according to an International Monetary Fund (IMF) study that compared the track records of mainstream economists in over 60 countries. They found that mainstream economists got it right ( predicted a recession a year before it happened) in only 2 out of 60 recessions that they studied amongst different countries. There were several "outlier" or rebel economist that we have been tracking on the Smart Economy blog since 2005-2006 who were signaling a market top, but most business people were in denial at the time, even as late as May 2008.

If mainstream economists  have such a dismal record of failure predicting recessions, what makes you think that they are any better at timing the turnaround? They are likley to be biased on the upside and discounting any continued risks.

.

Last week one single US bank announced record profits and that was supposedly a signal for everyone to jump back into the American stock market and for the consensus of mainstream economists to confidently predict that the recession will be over by the fall of 2009. Last Friday, a report from the Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey of private economists indicated that 86 percent of  them think that the recession will end in the second half of this year. President Obama called it a “glimmer of hope” in a speech on the weekend. N.B. --The working assumption here is that until the USA begins a turnaround, the global economy won’t start recovering from a recession / depression either.

In my opinion, I find it difficult to see any “glimmer of hope” when,

-Home and commercial foreclosures continue on the rise in the USA
-Unemployment continuing to rise in both  Canada, EU and the USA (this will likely go beyond the 10% forecast)
-23 banks have been shut down so far by FDIC this year (projections are for over 100 to close their doors)
-GM will likely be filing bankruptcy ( and all the secondary consequences in the auto-parts industry, and in single industry towns)
-The US budget deficit is almost a trillion dollars ( and the possibility of hyperinflation and a devalued US dollar down the road if we see a L-shaped recovery)
-Workers in the USA are becoming the working poor with companies cutting/freezing salaries, cutting 401k matching contributions and medical benefits

-The baby boom cohort in the USA is about to start retiring, cash in their dwindling 401K’s and decimated mutual funds and bankrupting an already dysfunctional pension plan program (too many new old aged recipients and not enough new younger workers paying into the program) consequently many seniors may delay / postpone their  retirement plans—Freedom 55 pushed back to Freedom 65, 75  or 85

When will we see a bottom or a turn-around? Listen to the political cartoonists and the satirists. They appear to have a better track record then the economists....This week's consenus from the humor pages...generally in the short term, no hope in sight...but there are opportunites for the few that are savvy enough to anticipate and spot them in advance.

 

 

 

 

What's the opportunity space or opportuntiy window here?

 

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

The Opportunity Clinic-28 tactics for managing your business in a recession-Part 17 Leapfrog your competition

In a professional bike race, the race is unusually won on the harder, uphill climbs, where also-rans can leapfrog the leaders, who might fall behind on the steeper inclines. The same is true at the national level in a recession, where countries can leapfrog their direct competitors by introducing and commercializing novel and disruptive innovations to give their industries a competitive advantage, when heading out of a recession. Many countries may be ignoring this once-in-a-hundred-year opportunity space.

Professor Sorin M.S. Krammer, from the   Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, Economics Department,  Troy, NY, USA, writes in a paper entitled: " Drivers of national innovation in transition: Evidence from a panel of Eastern European countries ."

 Abstract

Innovation plays a crucial role in determining today’s economic growth patterns. But what enables some countries to innovate more than others?

This study attempts to answer this question by analyzing in premiere a panel of six Eastern European transition countries. It provides a detailed description of innovation identifying regional differences in terms of historical heritage, technological specialization, commitments and main actors involved in this process, before and after the fall of communism. Secondly, it explores empirically the main drivers of their innovative output, proxied by patents, using a variety of econometric techniques and control variables. The results confirm the crucial role of universities and existing national knowledge base complemented by R&D commitments from both public and private sources. Policy measures, such as intellectual property rights protection or a favorable business climate, increase significantly the propensity to patent, while measures of transitional downturn and industrial restructuring diminish it. Finally, globalization contributes to developing new innovations in these countries through inflows of foreign investment and trade.

Source: Opportunity Clinic and Research Policy Volume 38, Issue 5, June 2009, Pages 845-860

 Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression featuring 45 opportunity scenarios.

The Opportunity Clinic-28 Tactics for managing your business in a recession. Part 16 of 28 Shortage Opportunities

In writing my new soon-to-be-released book Hard Times Golden Opportunities, I discovered that  one of the most underated and overlooked opportunty spaces are "shortage opportunties." They can occur in both boom times and in market reversals, busts and recessions.

A good example is AirBnB.com which is profiled this week in Time Magazine. Joe Gebbia and Brian Chesky were classmates at the Rhode Island School of Design (RISD). A few years ago, they moved to San Francisco with the vague intention of starting a business.

Time writes:

 

“Their eureka moment occurred in October 2007 when a huge design conference decimated the supply of hotel rooms in the city. They decided to try their idea without mapping it out [i.e. without any prior business model or business plan].

"We thought, Why not host people in our own apartment?" Gebbia said. "It was a way to make a few extra bucks to offset our already expensive rent." The guys had an extra bed, a sofa and an air mattress and decided to offer, via the conference's website, ad hoc bed-and-breakfast accommodations. Thus was born AirBnB.com. They made $1,000 that week and were shocked to find that their customers weren't teenage slackers but were instead older folks, including a 45-year-old father of three. Said Gebbia: "It completely blew away our assumptions."

Since they had no money, they quickly enlisted as their partner a former roommate, Nathan Blecharczyk, who had some technical skills. He built the website--which was initially aimed at cities with big conference calendars--and made it easy for hosts to offer low-rent lodging to visitors. AirBnB.com handled the financial transaction between guests and hosts and took 10% from the guests and 3% from the hosts.

 

Traffic grew. Along the way, the guys listened to their customers, tweaked the site and got free press by arriving at high-profile events, like the 2008 Democratic Convention, that were suddenly short of hotel space. Tapping their RISD backgrounds, they designed fanciful Obama O's and Cap'n McCain's cereal boxes and sold $30,000 worth as collector's items, which kept them going. With their guerrilla lodging site and their cereal boxes, they got on CNN, on many local newscasts and in the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal. And their site grew--enough to garner $20,000 from Y Combinator, the venture firm.

Today AirBnB.com has nearly 12,000 registered users, with more than 3,000 properties nationwide, Gebbia said. "As the economy gets worse, our business gets better." Again, this is a get-rich-slowly scheme: the business generates enough money to house and feed its three founders, who live together in an apartment that doubles as their workplace."

 

Source: The Opportunity Clinic (c) 2009 and Get Rich Slow Josh Quittner. Time. New York: Apr 20, 2009. Vol. 173, Iss. 15; pg. 42

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression; 45 recession-based opportunity scenarios.

New Higher Education Business Model? YouTube EDU

In a story called "On the Net: College too expensive? Try YouTube" , AP reports today (April 9, 2009) that:

"More than 100 schools have partnered with YouTube to create the YouTube EDU channel, including MIT, Harvard, Yale, Stanford  and UC Berkley... The Google Inc.-owned YouTube has for the last few years been forging partnerships with universities and colleges. The site recently gathered these video channels under the banner YouTube EDU."

 

What new distribution channels could be incorporated into your evolving business model?

 

Source: The Opportunity Clinic (c) 2009

See http://www.youtube.com/edu

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression.

US Electricity Grid Penetrated By Russian and Chinese CyberSpies according to Wall Street Journal April 8, 2009

"Cyberspies from China, Russia and other countries have penetrated the U.S.electrical grid and left behind software programs that could be used to disrupt the system, according to current and former national-security officials. Officials said water, sewage and other infrastructure systems also were at risk." claims the Wall Street Journal this morning. 

 

Although the respective governments are denying any affiliation now, stories in the local Russian and Chinese media about these governments actively recruiting and hiring hackers and cyberspies have appeared regularly since 2004. (see our Smart Economy  theft engine software post and ransomware software in 2006)

Full story here > http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123914805204099085.html

 

Walter Derzko

The human brain functions on the edge of chaos, at a transition point between randomness and order

According to Cambridge-based researchers, there is fresh  new evidence that suggests that the human brain lives "on the edge of chaos", at a critical transition point between randomness and order. The study, which was published last month in the March 20 issue of the journal PLoS Computational Biology, provides experimental data on an idea of self-organized criticality (SOC) - that was previously fraught with theoretical speculation.

Self-organized criticality (where systems spontaneously organize themselves to operate at a critical point between order and randomness), can emerge from complex interactions in many different physical systems, including avalanches, forest fires, earthquakes, and heartbeat rhythms. According to this study, conducted by a team from the University of Cambridge, the Medical Research Council Cognition & Brain Sciences Unit, and the GlaxoSmithKline Clinical Unit Cambridge, the dynamics of human brain networks have something important in common with some superficially very different systems in nature.

 

Computational networks showing these characteristics have also been shown to have optimal memory (data storage) and information-processing capacity. In particular, critical systems are able to respond very rapidly and extensively to minor changes in their inputs.

"Due to these characteristics, self-organized criticality is intuitively attractive as a model for brain functions such as perception, [opportunity recognition] and action, because it would allow us to switch quickly between mental states in order to respond to changing environmental conditions," says co-author Manfred Kitzbichler.

 

The researchers used state-of-the-art brain imaging techniques to measure dynamic changes in the synchronization of activity between different regions of the functional network in the human brain. Their results suggest that the brain operates in a self-organized critical state. To support this conclusion, they also investigated the synchronization of activity in computational models, and demonstrated that the dynamic profile they had found in the brain was exactly reflected in the models. Collectively, these results amount to strong evidence in favour of the idea that human brain dynamics exist at a critical point on the edge of chaos.

According to Kitzbichler, this new evidence is only a starting point. "A natural next question we plan to address in future research will be: How do measures of critical dynamics relate to cognitive performance or neuropsychiatric disorders and their treatments?"

 

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities..about opportunity recognition in a recession.

A new business model for the Digital Book?

Silicon Valley entrepreneur Bradley Inman is starting Vook, a new platform for e-books that will combine text, video and social networking, in an attempt to provide a more satisfying experience than Kindle and other e-book formats have been providing so far.

 

The NYT says: "

" Inman wants to create great fiction, dramatic online video and compelling Twitter stream — and then roll them all into a multimedia hybrid that is tailored to the rapidly growing number of digital reading devices.

Mr. Inman, a successful Silicon Valley entrepreneur, calls this digital amalgam a “Vook,” (vook.tv) and the fledgling company he has created with that name just might represent a possible future for the beleaguered book industry.

Publishing, of course, is feeling the same chronic pain as other media businesses, with layoffs, corporate restructurings and a general sense of gloom, doom and kaboom settling over name-brand giants like Random House and Simon & Schuster."

 

See full story here>  New York Times, April 4, 2009

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression.

Professor-on-a-chip; Computer algorithm derives natural laws from raw data

Once in a while you run across a science or technology discovery that you just know will accelerate innovation in other fields and lead to more discoveries and unexpected applications....this one fits that bill. Higher order thinking such as concept development, which is separate from idea development, has so far been solely isolated  in the human domain... well, not any more. This idea is really cool....I've dubbed it ...Professor-on-a-chip or  A-box-that-thinks...well in a very rudimentary fashion so far. ---Walter Derzko

From a Cornell press release today:

 

"If Isaac Newton had access to a supercomputer, he'd have had it watch apples fall – and let it figure out the physical matters. But the computer would have needed to run an algorithm, just developed by Cornell researchers, which can derive natural laws from observed data.

The researchers have taught a computer to find regularities in the natural world that become established laws – yet without any prior scientific knowledge on the part of the computer. They have tested their method, or algorithm, on simple mechanical systems and believe it could be applied to more complex systems ranging from biology to cosmology and be useful in analyzing the mountains of data generated by modern experiments that use electronic data collection.

The research will be published in the journal Science (April 3, 2009)by Hod Lipson, Cornell associate professor of mechanical and aerospace engineering, and graduate student Michael Schmidt, a specialist in computational biology.

Their process begins by taking the derivatives of every variable observed with respect to every other – a mathematical way of measuring how one quantity changes as another changes. Then the computer creates equations at random using various constants and variables from the data. It tests these against the known derivatives, keeps the equations that come closest to predicting correctly, modifies them at random and tests again, repeating until it literally evolves a set of equations that accurately describe the behavior of the real system.

Technically, the computer does not output equations, but finds "invariants" – mathematical expressions that remain true all the time.

"Even though it looks like it's changing erratically, there is always something deeper there that is always constant," Lipson explained. "That's the hint to the underlying physics. You want something that doesn't change, but the relationship between the variables in it changes in a way that's similar to [what we see in] the real system."

Once the invariants are found, potentially all equations describing the system are available:

"All equations regarding a system must fit into and satisfy the invariants," Schmidt said. "But of course we still need a human interpreter to take this step."

The researchers tested the method with apparatus used in freshman physics courses: a spring-loaded linear oscillator, a single pendulum and a double pendulum. Given data on position and velocity over time, the computer found energy laws, and for the pendulum, the law of conservation of momentum. Given acceleration, it produced Newton's second law of motion.

The researchers point out that the computer evolves these laws without any prior knowledge of physics, kinematics or geometry. ..[challenges the notion the prior knowledge or experience is needed for new insight--Walter Derzko...]

 

But evolution takes time. On a parallel computer with 32 processors, simple linear motion could be analyzed in a few minutes, but the complex double pendulum required 30 to 40 hours of computation. The researchers found that seeding the complex pendulum problem with terms from equations for the simple pendulum cut processing time to seven or eight hours.

This "bootstrapping," they said, is similar to the way human scientists build on previous work.

Computers will not make scientists obsolete, the researchers conclude. Rather, they said, the computer can take over the grunt work, helping scientists focus quickly on the interesting phenomena and interpret their meaning."

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities..about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression.

With a bit of electricity, Microbes turn CO2 and water into methane.

Environmentalists & the Green movement have it all wrong. I've long said that we should view carbon dioxide (CO2) as a something positive, an input or a fundimental  building block or feedstock and not as something negative to get rid of, hide  or sequester underground.

Now, according to Penn State engineers, methanogenic microorganisms can take electricity and directly convert carbon dioxide (C02) and water into methane, producing a portable energy source with a potentially neutral carbon footprint.

"We were studying making hydrogen in microbial electrolysis cells and we kept getting all this methane," said Bruce E. Logan, Kappe Professor of Environmental Engineering, Penn State. "We may now understand why."

Methanogenic microorganisms do produce methane in marshes and dumps, but scientists thought that the organisms turned hydrogen or organic materials, such as acetate, into methane. However, the researchers found, while trying to produce hydrogen in microbial electrolysis cells, that their cells produced much more methane than expected.

"All the methane generation going on in nature that we have assumed is going through hydrogen may not be," said Logan. "We actually find very little hydrogen in the gas phase in nature. Perhaps where we assumed hydrogen is being made, it is not."

Microbial electrolysis cells do require an electrical voltage to be added to the voltage that is produced by bacteria using organic materials to produce current that evolves into hydrogen.

The researchers found that the methanogenic microorganisms Archaea, using about the same electrical input, could use the current to convert carbon dioxide and water to methane without any organic material, bacteria or hydrogen usually found in microbial electrolysis cells. They report their findings in this week's issue of Environmental Science and Technology

Walter Derzko

 

Smart living corrosion-inhibiting coatings encapsulate good bacteria spores

A new, environmentally friendly coating that protects metals against corrosion in seawater has been developed by a team of researchers from Sheffield Hallam University in the UK.

At the Society for General Microbiology meeting in Harrogate today, researchers describe how they had encapsulated spores from a bacterium into a sol-gel coating which then protected an aluminium alloy from microbial corrosion.

Microbially-influenced corrosion (MIC) of metals at sea is a big safety and financial problem caused by the production of damaging substances such as hydrogen sulphide by sulphate-reducing micro-organisms within biofilms on the surfaces. Overall it is estimated that corrosion costs the UK around 3-4% of GDP. Existing anti-corrosion treatments are costly, ineffective and often include biocides and inhibitors that are toxic to aquatic life.

The corrosion-preventing bacteria occur naturally in the environment. Incorporating its spores into the coating did not seem to affect their viability – living cells were still found in the coating after more than six weeks in seawater. The coating could also be heat cured at temperatures up to 90°C.

Speaking at the meeting, scientists said: "Our results from laboratory studies and a field trial in the Thames estuary have shown that the bacteria-containing coating is substantially more effective in the prevention of corrosion than the sol-only coating. We are investigating what causes the corrosion protection – we think it might be due to the immobilized bacteria producing antimicrobial agents which inhibit the growth of corrosion-causing microorganisms". Additional trials are now planned or in progress in a variety of marine environments.

Walter Derzko

Self-powered nanobattery-free energy from motion

Researchers at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta have developed an extremely tiny nanogenerator that can produce electricity from the mechanical energy naturally produced when our bodies move (aka the piezoelectric effect  or mechanical pressure converted to electricity)

 

According to the press release:

 

"With further development, the nanogenerator could allow people to power personal electronic devices, such as cell phones, MP3 players, and maybe even small laptop computers, entirely from the physical exertions of a day at the office. It could also usher in a new era of long-lived microsensors and miniature medical devices that derive their electrical needs from their surroundings instead of from batteries.

 

 

First demonstrated in the 1880s, the ability of some materials to convert mechanical pressure into an electric current--called the piezoelectric effect--has found scattered applications over the years. For example, it powers the flashing LEDs embedded in the soles of children's sneakers, and it produces sparks to ignite propane-fueled candle and fireplace lighters. But so far, no one has been able to channel this essentially free power into very small applications--particularly at the nanoscale, where devices can be thousands of times smaller than the thickness of a human hair. Nanosized piezoelectric devices would be extremely valuable because they could operate indefinitely without the need to be repowered or recharged.

 

The device relies on flexible zinc oxide nanowires sprouting like bristles from a metal electrode and sandwiched inside a rigid polymer binding. When pressed, the polymer bends the zinc oxide filaments, which generate an electrical current.  So far, the research team has been able to generate 0.2 volts with an efficiency of only 6.8%--far below the performance of conventional batteries. Still, that's already enough for some practical applications, if many nanogenerators are integrated."

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Electrical Grid not hacker-proof but susceptible to cyber attacks

Next to the Forbes Business and Finance Blog Network web site,  that often features the Smart Economy blog posts, IBM features a banner advertising their smarter planet initiative, which promotes their smart technologies such as the smart grid initiative.

 

Several years ago, when I spoke at the World Future Society annual meeting on smart technologies, I mentioned that the one of the key weaknesses of this technology, was that everything is linked together, therefore vulnerable to hacking and cyber attacks. This includes smart grids, smart cities, and other smart objects linked through the internet of things and  internet of services.

 

This week, researchers reported that they created a computer worm (like the virus that attacks your computer, or cell phone) that could quickly spread among Smart Grid devices such as smart meters through those intelligent networks. PC World reports that:

“Researchers have spent the past year testing Smart Grid devices for security vulnerabilities and have discovered a number of flaws that could allow hackers to access the network and cut power, according to Joshua Pennell, IOActive's CEO. Smart Grid devices are small computers that are connected to the power grid, giving customers and power companies better control over the electricity they use. There are about 2 million of these devices currently deployed [in the USA] , but many more are expected to be added in coming years...[another 17 million of these devices over the next few years.--Walter Derzko ]

The researchers created a computer worm that could quickly spread among Smart Grid devices, many of which use wireless technology to communicate, according to Travis Goodspeed, an independent security consultant who worked with the team. "It spread from one meter to another and then it changed the text in the LCD screen to say 'pwned'," he said. Pwned is hacker-speak meaning "taken over."

In the hands of a malicious hacker, this code could be used to cut power to Smart Grid devices that use a feature called "remote disconnect," which allows power companies to cut a customer's power via the network.

IOActive briefed the U.S. Department of Homeland Security on its findings Monday and is advising the utilities industry to better test the systems before deploying them in the real world.”

[....] 

The robustness of U.S. power networks has been a hot-button issue after a technical glitch in 2003 caused a cascading power failure in the eastern United States and Canadathat affected 55 million people.

Last year the National Journal claimed that Chinese military and government officials may have been behind two blackouts in 2003. It reports a theory that a Chinese hacker who was intending to gather data on power systems had either made a mistake or got carried away and wound up triggering the blackout. Now, even Russiam politicians have admitted being behind the cyberattacks that targeted the Baltic republics recently.

Walter Derzko, 

author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunites

 

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 25 New Financial sector Business Models or New Creative Workarounds?

I listened to US president Obama last Wednesday on the White House lawn, just before AIG’s CEO Liddy testified before the American congress on AIG’s bonuses. The significant point that Obama made at the end of his speech, was a fundamental change or shift to the status quo. Coincidentally or not, most mainstream newspaper reports missed this key idea and quote.

“People are rightly outrages about these particular [AIG] bonuses. But just as outrageous is the culture that these bonuses are a symptom of., that have existed for far too long. A situation where excess greed, excess compensation, excess risk-taking have all made us vulnerable and left us holding the bank. And  one of the message that I want to send is as we  get out of this crisis, as we work towards getting ourselves out of recession, I hope that Wall Street and the marketplace don't think that we can return to business as usual. The business models that created a lot of paper wealth but not real wealth in this country and have now resulted in crisis can't be the model for economic growth going forward." said Obama.

The New Yorker magazine featured this cartoon (on the right) earlier this month (March 9, 2009) , which is a more likely scenario for the financial sector….One business person says to the other….These new regulations will fundamentally change the way we get around them…

 

Walter Derzko;

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

The Opportunity Clinic-28 Tactics for managing your Business in a Recession; Part 15 of 28 Drop problem-solving and adopt opportunity surfing

Why problem-solving, Total Quality Management (TQM), Continuous Improvement (CI), Value Network Analysis (VNA) etc is not good enough in a recession…..you  need to be totally focused on designing and /or finding novel  opportunities. These tools have their place, but it's usually in the upswing part of the business cycle to improve efficiencies of existing operations, but not now.

Many companies are still applying the pre-recession, boom-time mentality to today’s totally changed and novel business environment. Driven by existing business models, mindsets and existing ongoing relationships with  consultants, experts, suppliers and vendors, who are desperately trying to maintain their sales numbers and quotas, companies are continuing to do more of the same…what seemed to worked for them in good  times..lets' work in the same box. What we need is not "out of the box thinking" [I hate that expressionm becuase it shows that you don't understand cognition and how the brain patterns information], but to design brand new "boxes".  

 

The recession is not a problem to be solved, it’s a crisis to be avoided. And you  can only do that in one way. NOW, you need to be totally opportunity-focused and opportunity-receptive and less problem-focused and preoccupied with incremental change. Radical ideas and concepts, (and not accruemental solutions to old problems, unless they lead to novel opportunity spaces) are in order, along with resulting new business models (which we often forget to explore and redesign ), that will help companies thrive and not just survive in a recession.

 

See the cartoon in this week's New Yorker....We're still the same great company we've always been, only we've ceased to exist.  I bet they were great problem-solvers at the tactical, operational level, but poor opportunity surfers at the strategic level.

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy,

Toronto;

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

 

When will the recession / depression end? Part 24 Wanted -a new economic driver

This week's Newsweek features a cover story with Uncle Sam urging you to stop saving and to start spending...in other words do what got you into trouble in the first place..spend or go into debt for the sake of the economy. It's not likely to happen soon.

In a recently published book, called "The Difference: How Anyone Can Prosper in Even the Toughest Times." by Jean Chatzky, the results of a 2008 Harris Interactive poll/ survey on income was pubished.

• 3% in the USA are indepently wealthy (usually bigger savers, as a rule)
• 27% in the USA are comfortably wealthy (recently earned money and wealth, and tend to save more then spend)
• 54% in the USA live pay check to pay check (driving most retail spending, the classic consumer)
• 15% going deeper into debt

These are 2008 numbers, so that the stats today are likely much worse.

So if ordinary Americans aren't going to spend their way out of this recession / depression. then who will? Business ? No liquidity yet. It may just take another country, if not another coninent to take over the "consumer" moniker from the USA.

Walter Derzko, Smart Economy, Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Smart Bottom-up assembly through molecular nanoweaving

 Traditionally, chemical reactions can be initiated by targeting individual molecules using sophisticated tools such as lasers, atomic force microscopes, and scanning tunneling microscopes. However, such bottom-up molecular reactions are typically limited to lab experiments rather than the creation of a commercially viable macroscopic material.

 

This novel University of Chicago patent offers a commercial "free space method" based on field gradients in order to weave macromolecular films.

 

Claim 1 reads:

1. A method of constructing macroscopic films with tailored assemblies of molecules, comprising:

providing starting molecules; and

applying a force selected from the group of a gravitational force, a centrifugal force, a magnetic field force, and an electric field force to the starting molecules causing them to move in space and then chemically react to form tailored assemblies of molecules in a particular pattern in a nanoscale size macroscopic film for removal and subsequent use.

 

see  Molecular nanoweaver- US Patent 7501483

Walter Derzko

When will the recession / depression end? Part 23 Microsoft counting on Economic Reset Scenario

Key excerpts from a speech given by Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer at the Democratic Caucus Retreat in Williamsburg, Virginia, February 6, 2009.

"....In my view, what we now have will be a fundamental economic reset.  The economy is going to have to re-establish itself at a level of spending that reflects the real value of underlying assets before we can all start growing again at a healthy rate. 

This may not be the thing that people really want to hear, but it's certainly what we're planning on, and it's the truth on which we're basing sort of our model, if you will, at Microsoft.

In our opinion, in order to reach the reset point, three things need to happen.  First, the economy must be deleveraged.  Private debt as a percentage of GDP has to be reduced.  Restoring health to the nation's financial system is a fundamental part of this.

Just for historical note, not only during the Depression, but actually in 1837 and in 1873 we had similar style resets in the economy.  We actually have at least three historic periods that we can study in which similar phenomenon occurred.  I think it was 1873 where even the state of  Florida filed for Bankruptcy.  So, we need to be thoughtful about being students I think of the history.

Second, confidence must be restored.  The stimulus package, in my opinion, is vital.  It will provide a cushion as we reach the reset point and it will help restart our economic engine.  (Applause.)  I certainly want to applaud the steps that the House has taken under the speaker's leadership to quickly pass a strong stimulus package and to help shore up our financial institutions. 

Third, America really has to return to growth that's built on innovation and productivity, rather than leverage and private debt.  That must happen.

The good news is that the U.S.economy is still the world leader in innovation.  [Not any more--Walter Derzko] Our universities are the envy of the rest of the world.  The American workforce is the best on the planet, and  U.S.companies continue to drive technological progress in almost every industry. 

But the time has come when we need to renew our innovation capacity. 

We went back and studied what innovation companies did during the time of the Great Depression.  One company that stands out, if you study the Depression, is RCA. 

Now, the fact that RCA is not around today, this has nothing to do with their behavior during the Depression.  There's probably good learnings for a lot of technology companies in that. 

But during the time of the Depression, RCA was probably the most broad-based R&D-centric company in America.  And while it cut costs certainly to survive the Depression, it never retreated from its commitment to core research and development.  And as a result, after the Depression had ended, it really led and the U.S. led TV technology developments for the next 25 years. 

That was good for RCA; it was good for America. 

In my view, American companies aren't going to be able to weather this economic downturn just by cutting costs either.  You may have heard that Microsoft, our company has decided that we need to reduce 5,000 positions.  What you may not know is that at the same time we've decided we'll also create two to three thousand new jobs -- mostly in the US-- as we continue to push into new areas that require investment. 

In addition, despite the tough economy -- I might even say because of the tough economy -- our company will continue to invest more than US$9 billion a year in R&D, because we think it's that R&D spending that will cause us to remain strong.  (Applause.) ..."

Full speech here

Walter Derzko 

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Buckyballs or fullerenes keep pipes clear and water systems flowing

Two years ago, we featured a story about a team of Ukrainian scientists, who have shown that C60 or buckeyballs, specifically a modified form known as "hydrated fullerenes" (HyFn) can effectively prevent or bust existing blood clots in animal experiments and in early pre-clinical trials along with about a dozen  other numerous possible medical applications.  .....(which include  a possible treatment for  Alzheimer's and exibiting  strong anti-oxidant, anti-viral and anti-bacterial properties (HyFn doesn't kill viruses but prevents the spread from cell to cell.) A buckyball, or C60, is one shape within the family of tiny carbon shapes known as fullerenes. They are named after Richard Buckminster Fuller, the inventor of the geodesic dome, since their shape resembles his famous structure.

Now American scientists have transfered that capability  into an inoganic application--these same microscopic nanoparticles of carbon will in the future be able to keep the nation's water pipes (and possibly oil pipelines) clear in the same way conventional  clot-busting drugs prevent arteries from clogging up.

[The first picture on the left  show a membrane without fullerene treatmenmt. The second picture below shows the effects with fullerene treatment.]

Engineers at Duke University have found that buckyballs hinder the ability of bacteria and other microorganisms to accumulate on the membranes used to filter water in treatment plants. This attribute leads the researchers to believe that coating pipes and membranes with these nanoparticles may prove to be an effective strategy for

addressing one of the major problems and costs of treating water.

"Just as plaque can build up inside arteries and reduce the flow of blood, bacteria and other microorganisms can over time attach and accumulate on water treatment membranes and along water pipes," said So-Ryong Chae, post-doctoral fellow in Duke's environmental and civil engineering department. The results of his experiments were published March 5, 2009 in the Journal of Membrane Sciences

"As the bacteria build up on these surfaces, they attract other organic matter, creating a biofilm that slowly builds up over time," Chae continued, "The results of our experiments in the laboratory indicate that buckyballs may be able to prevent this clogging, known as biofouling. The only other options to address biofouling are digging up the pipes and replacing the membranes, which can be expensive and inconvenient."

"Biofouling is viewed as one of the biggest costs associated with membrane-based water treatment systems," said Claudia Gunsch, assistant professor of civil engineering at Duke's Pratt School of Engineering and senior member of the research team. "These membranes have very small pores, so they can get stopped up quickly. If we could increase the time between membrane replacements by 50 percent, for example, that would be a huge cost savings."

 

According to Chae, the addition of buckyballs to treatment membranes had a two-fold effect. First, treated membranes showed less bacterial attachment than non-treated membranes. After three days, the membranes treated with buckyballs had on average 20 colony forming units, the method by which bacterial colonies are counted.

"In contrast, the number of bacterial colonies on the untreated membrane was too numerous to count," Chae said.

Chae also found that the presence of the buckyballs inhibited respiration, or the ability of the bacteria to use oxygen to fuel its activities.

"As the concentration of buckyballs increased, so did the inhibition of respiration," Chae said. "This respiratory inhibition and anti-attachment suggests that this nanoparticle may be useful as an anti-fouling agent to prevent the biofouling of membranes or other surfaces."

 

Gunsch said the mechanisms involved are not well-understood.

 

What's the Opportunity Space here? I can envision several.

 

 

Here is one  for  Ukraine,  whose GDP largely depends on steel exports.Ukraine's economic faith could now be saved by its own scientists. The oligarchs who control the steel and pipe production industry and whose fortunes are going down the tubes (pun fully intended) due to low steel demand and falling commodity prices, should team up with their own Ukrainian scientists, who have been largely ingnored by Ukrainian industry. These scientists from Kharkiv, who developed hydrated fullerenes should partner  up with surface science specialists and coatings specialists (which Ukraine has no shortage of) say, at the Patton Institute in Kyiv and approach these oligarchs to fund and fast-track research into developing biofilm-resistent pipes for water and  especially oil, which they could sell all over the world. 

Being realistic, this technology won't be supported or taken up any time soon by the incumbant steel industry and pipe manufacturers, like the Mittels and Victor Pinchuk's of the world, who depend on pipes aging and rusting away so that they can replace them with new ones.This a disruptive thechnology will likely be pushed quietly  by some "outsider" in a new market niche, under the radar screen of the big market players.

Foxconn and IBM team up to design smart factories and a Smart City in China

While we hear of daily layoff announcements in many Chinese factories, Foxconn, the world's largest contract electronics maker, is planning to spend a few billion U.S. dollars over the next three to five years to build a digital city with the latest technologies added to make it a healthy, clean place to live, said Terry Gou the chairman of Foxconn today.

The first phase of the project will involve working with IBM to install its

Smart

City

software at sprawling factory locations in

China.

"We want to build smart cities," he said, declining to name the location of the first for fear land prices in the area would immediately rise.

Gou's company already runs several massive factory complexes in China that operate as small cities in their own right, housing tens of thousands of workers in dormitories and feeding them in cafeterias.

IBM

Smart

City

software, meant to make more efficient use of city resources such as water, transportation, surveillance and more, will be used at the factory complexes first, then at a new digital city.

Walter Derzko

When will the recession / depression end? Part 22 Why we are likely to see a protracted L-shaped or double dip W-Shaped Recession?

Collapsed container traffic  and falling electricity demand

 

 

GDP growth or collapse is a poor early warning indicator for the economy. Figures are historic -they are released several months (usually 3 months) after the fact and the are then usually revised. As politicians are fond of saying, we've seen a global symmetric  (I'd argue.. asymmetric) collapse in GDP.

 

Here are the recently released GDP numbers for the 4th quarter of 2008.

 

Canada (-3.4%)

The EU (-5.9%)

The USA (-6.2%)

Japan (-12.7%)

 

Everyone is expecting even worse numbers in Q1 2009.

 

One proxy indicator that I follow is global trade. Back in 2006 and 2007 I was  looking for early signals/signs of impending collapse and now I’m tracking trade to determine if the economy will be in a protracted holding pattern (like the lost decade in the 1990’s in Japan, although it should be called the lost 2 decades) or will we see some resemblence of any recovery of international trade any time soon?

 

Bulk goods and container traffic is a good leading 6 month proxy for the economy. Manufacturers order raw materials in anticipation of manufacturing growth. In America, the container traffic in Long Beach California (the busiest port in the USA)  totally collapsed in 2007, long before there were any signs that the economy had peaked. Container traffic, dry and wet bulk goods traffic and shipping rates have been down and flat ever since-at historic low levels. If you use these indicators, there is ABSOLUTELY NO RECOVERY  in sight for 2009. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is showing some signs of life, but it's a type #1 error, also known in academics as a false positive. Suppliers are using some creaive accounting by attempting to take their goods "off their books" shifting them into the F.O.B catagory, but these raw materials, assembled cars and even oil supplies are just sitting inside container ships in ports, awaiting for commodity prices to increase. (hat tip to Zavis Zeman for alerting us to this tactic)

Power consumption is another good indicator to watch that signals the health of the economy. (the same is equally true for industrial use of coal, gas and oil, if you can find the data.)

 

Historically, electricity consumption and GDP growth are closely coupled, although there is still debate in the academic literature on what causes what. Does electricity use drive GDP growth or the other way around.Energy conservation efforts are starting to confound the data too.  When I can find it, I use monthly and annual power consumption data as a proxy indicator for economic recovery. The logic is simple. If you are not running a second or third shift, or if you have closed down your factory, then energy use will drop long before we see any GDP changes in government statistics. Likewise, on the way up, energy consumption should be flat and then start to slowly rise before we see any effects in GDP numbers.

China and India have become the world's manufacturers, so their health is a proxy indicator for global economic health. Both China and Indiahave reported drastic energy consumption drops in their industrial sectors. Starting in late 2007 and right through 2008,

China reported a drop in consumption, although relative year-over-year, power consumption was positive, still growing but at a much slower decelerated pace. As the global financial crisis began to take a toll on the real economy, power demand plummeted in China, as enterprises shut down or cut back working hours in response to moribund business orders.

"Power consumption in China grew 5.23 percent in 2008, 9.57 percentage points lower than a year ago and the slowest in eight years, according to Chinese data. The slowing demand was mainly contributed by the industrial sector.  About 3.43 trillion kilowatt-hours of electricity was used by the industry last year, up 3.83 percent from a year earlier, slower than the overall social power consumption growth rate for the first time.  Electricity used by the service industry and the rural and urban residents continued rapid growth, as the group was less affected by the financial crisis."

In India, power consumption grew 13.28 % in 2007 (a combination of industrial use, consumer household use, and village electrification) and dropped off the cliff by 16.91 percent in 2008, worse then in China.

 

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 21 Darker days ahead , but not for all

When will the recession / depression end? Part 20 The Dog that Didn't Bark; Economists say don't pay attention to us

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

Are marketers and advertisers starting to smart-wash products or services?

Is it just me or have you noticed that many more marketers have caught on to "smart" as a way to promote their products or services. Some I would count as ligitimate uses and while others boarder on what I call "smart-washing" (pretending to be a  smart product when you really are not.) With billions of dollars in infrastructure money being released by Obama in the USA and Harper in Canada, companies smell opportunity in the "smart space".

It all started with the Super Bowl last month. GE launched it's  GE Smart Grid Technology. Quite a cute and clever commercial, featuring the brain-less scare crow from the Wizard of Oz to promote their Smart Power Grid work.

Yesterday, IBM ran a full page advertising on page B9 in the Globe and Mail newspaper in Toronto touting it's smart grid services from it's "smarter power for a smarter planet" initiative. It was well-worded, informative, and convincing.

Both, I would consider legitimate uses of the word smart, as in adding intelligence to a dumb or benign product or service.

The trouble comes when marketers start liberally tossing the word smart around and calling everything smart. The car companies have caught on and are running ads on TV in Canada calling everything smart. Take the Hyundai "Smart is In" car campaign. It centers around the "Smart" purchase, featuring a beautiful red-headed woman "bumping" a guy's Elantra and setting off the car alarm to get his attention. Then everything becomes smart..smart on gas, smart on quality, smart style, smart advantage. Does this dilute the meaning of "smart" or confuse the consumer or business decsion-maker?

Is this smart-washing or not? The trouble is ..the word "smart", as a verb or noun has over 14 different meanings or groups of synonyms, ranging from intelligent, stylish, sting or prick, annoy, irritate (don't be so smart), to alert, discerning, astute, shrewd etc.

If you see/hear  any new commercials in the press or on TV or the radio featuring "smart products or services", send us a note with a link, and we'll feature them here.

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

 

 

Smart Technology and Seniors

One sign that a new emerging technology is maturing up along the S-curve is that Master's and PHD candidates are starting to pay attention to it.

 

Here is an abstract of a  recently completed  thesis that looks at how seniors use  smart technologies (ST). It uses and ethnographic approach that explores the perceived smart technology  needs among elders with mobility impairments.

 

Abstract (Summary)

Comparatively little research has been conducted regarding the smart technology needs of the elder population despite the proliferation of smart technology (ST) prototypes. The purpose of this study was to explore the perceived smart technology needs of elders with mobility impairments while constructing a preliminary decision tree model of how these decisions are made. An ethnographic research approach, with a decision tree modeling component, was utilized to explore the complex variables surrounding the elder ST need decision process. In-depth individual interviews with 11 elders aged 65 and older with mobility impairments, and their in-home observations, provided insight into how elders perceived smart technology. Audio-taped interviews were transcribed verbatim and then analyzed for key phrases that represented participant decision criteria. Decision criteria concepts were combined to construct an elder smart technology decision tree model.

The model identifies that elder participants must first determine if they are satisfied or not satisfied with their current activity performance level. If satisfied with their activity performance level then the elders do not critically consider the ST device. However, dissatisfaction with current activity level is no assurance that elder participants will desire ST to assist with their daily activity needs, due to the numerous other potential barrier criteria identified in the model (i.e., not practical, not easy to use/learn, not reliable, or whether it may add more problems). If any of the other barriers are a concern then elders will not desire the ST device. The model also identifies [six] important facilitator criteria (i.e., decreasing imposition on family/friends and 5 others) that could motivate elders to adopt ST assistance. This decision model adds to the elder ST needs literature and potentially will help future designers create appropriately matched technological devices that will assist in the care of aging baby boomers with mobility impairments.

 

Source: The Opportunity Clinic (c)  2009; Opportunity Scenario #362 Facilitator / Complementor Opportunities

Solar Energy breaks manufacturing milestone barrier of $1 /watt; First Solar Cuts Manufacturing Cost to 98 Cents Per Watt in Fourth Quarter

I track a number of opinion leaders and technology leaders in various smart tecnology fields. First Solar is one of the more interesting companies in PV solar energy space

First Solar, Inc.  yesterday announced that it has reduced its manufacturing cost for solar modules in the fourth quarter to 98 cents per watt, breaking the $1 per watt price barrier.

“This achievement marks a milestone in the solar industry’s evolution toward providing truly sustainable energy solutions,” said Mike Ahearn, First Solar chief executive officer. “First Solar is proud to be leading the way toward clean, affordable solar electricity as a viable alternative to fossil fuels.”

Background from the Press Release

First Solar began full commercial operation of its initial manufacturing line in late 2004. From 2004 through today, manufacturing capacity has grown 2,500 percent to more than 500 megawatts in 2008. First Solar’s annual production capacity will double in 2009 to more than 1 gigawatt, the equivalent of an average-sized nuclear power plant. These escalating volumes have been accompanied by a rapid reduction in manufacturing costs. From 2004 through today, First Solar’s manufacturing costs have declined two-thirds from over $3 per watt to less than $1 per watt.  First Solar is confident that further significant cost reductions are possible based on the yet untapped potential of its technology and manufacturing process.  [N.B.-This I.P. is kept quite secret-public tours of the plant are strictly forbidden--Walter Derzko]

The press release goes on to say:

"First Solar is not only committed to making solar power affordable but also to making it environmentally sustainable. The Company takes responsibility for its products throughout their life cycle, ensuring that First Solar modules have the smallest carbon footprint of any current photovoltaic (PV) technology. First Solar is proud to have the industry’s first and only comprehensive pre-funded, end-of-life module collection and recycling program, recycling more than 90 percent of each collected module into new products."

Ahearn expressed thanks to governments in

Germany

and other countries for making today’s milestone possible.

“Without forward-looking government programs supporting solar electricity, we would not have been able to invest in the capacity expansion which gives us the scale to bring costs down,” he said. “First Solar’s ongoing focus on cost reduction enables continued growth even as subsidies decline. In the meantime, those initial investments are paying off in a cleaner environment and in the creation of thousands of jobs with a clear future.”

“This represents a major milestone for the solar industry,” said Ken Zweibel, an industry veteran currently serving as Director of the Institute for the Analysis of Solar Energy at The George Washington University and former Program Leader for the Thin Film Partnership Program at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo.

“In order to address climate change in a meaningful way, we need energy technologies that are affordable, scalable and have a low environmental impact on a life-cycle basis. With this announcement, First Solar continues to demonstrate the ability of thin film PV technology to provide an alternative to traditional fossil fuels and for solar power to provide a meaningful contribution in addressing climate change

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 14 of 28 Which country is the most opportunity savvy in this recession?

Most politicians and economists now all agree that the world is in the throws of a total synchronous recession, if not depression. But which countries are the most resilient and get the fact that change and chaos produces opportunites?

 

Using the number of English language media stories about spotting or designing opportunities in a recession as a very crude proxy indicator, I started looking at several free and paid databases for public stories concerning the recession and opportunity recognition.

 

Which country is the most Opportunity Savvy in this recession? Who seems to be on top?

1)       The UK

2)       The USA

3)       India

4)       Canada

5)       China

The first two results many be biased because the recession /depression is far more advance in these top two countries, and the fact that I was just looking at the English language press only, but if media coverage is a reflection of societal mindsets, then the UK seems to be way ahead as a very opportunity savvy nation-their business people get it.

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

When will the recession / depression end? Part 21 Darker days ahead , but not for all

(Credit: This prophetic cartoon on the right appeared in one of the fall 2008 issues of the New Yorker magazine. It delivers several important messages from negative (depression, gloom and doom) to Positive (i.e what's the silver lining behind every cloud, or the opportunity behind every threat;  resilience, and make do with what you got!)

I was reminded of it after reading this morning's news from Canada’s  Globe and Mail newspaper-Dark(er) Days Ahead

The quarterly C-Suite survey was conducted for The Globe and Mail; Report on Business and Business News Network by Gandalf Group, and sponsored by KPMG. The survey interviewed 150 executives between Jan. 29 and Feb. 12. Respondents represent ROB 1000 companies from across Canada.

Here's a summary:

• 90 per cent of executives expect the economy to decline in the next 12 months                     (Now here is the flaw with most survey methodologies....They never tell me exactly what I really want to know...I always wonder about the extreme outliers. What do the other 10% think and Why? Why don't surveys ever focus on this "left behind" group?...Their ideas are far more significant then the majority. Are they more optimistic, expecting a quicker turnround? Will the economy  be flat or in neutral gear, anemic but not growing or dropping much? Are they just in counter-cyclical business or industry, that's level or even  growing  in a recession or have they just surfaced new opportunities that the majority of us don't see or can't even imagine yet? Are they just plain contrarians or are they still in the denial stage? or Are they doing something creative / innovative that the other 90 % don’t know about? Do they just see more Opportunity Windows, then the rest of us, because they are now more vigilant for new "opportunity spaces" and "opportunity sensitive areas"? and less gloomy? Are they more Opportunity Savvy then the rest of the other 90%. and more personally, who should I be targeting with the Opportunity Clinic workshops? the 10% who already get it or the 90% who don't and may turn out to be a recession/ depression casaulty?) see Opportunity Clinic  

• Half think it will be more than a year before growth returns ie 2010 

• Two-thirds say it is now more difficult than ever to access credit

• Two-thirds say the economy has forced them to focus on the short-term at the expense of long-term growth plans, 

• (significantly) Half are more concerned about corporate survival than they were six months ago.

• Hunkering down for survival now seems to be top of mind for many executives

• The key, said on exec, is to conserve cash and be ready to expand when the economy improves. But he does not expect a turnaround at least until 2010. (N.B.the concensus used to be end of 2009)

• The goal, for everyone, is to ensure survival.

• "If there is an upside to the recession, it is that some competitors will be "weeded out," said one C-suite exec. There might also be deals that can be arranged with landlords who will be willing to offer better prices on available retail space.

• All companies have to ensure they come out of the recession healthy enough to exploit those opportunities..(see the Opportunity Clinic)

Do you agree? (out of 150 c-suite execs)

• I'm confident our company will weather this downturn: 97% agree

• This is the worst economic environment in my time: 82% agree

• The economy has forced us to focus on short-term at the expense of long-term growth: 67% agree

• I am more concerned about our company's survival than I was six months ago: 53% agree

See survey story here>> 

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 20 The Dog that Didn't Bark; Economists say don't pay attention to us

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

 

 

US scientists discover therapeutic human monoclonal antibodies against avian bird flu and seasonal flu viruses offering cross-protection

Researchers at the Dana-Farber Cancer Institute (Dana-Farber), Burnham Institute for Medical Research (Burnham) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in the USA have reported the discovery and identification of human monoclonal antibodies (mAb) that neutralize an unprecedented range of influenza A viruses, including avian influenza A (H5N1) virus, previous pandemic influenza viruses, and some seasonal influenza viruses.

 

These antibodies have the potential for use in combination with other treatments to prevent or treat certain types of avian and seasonal flu. The antibodies neutralize a broad range of influenza A subtypes because they bind to the highly conserved stem region of H5 type hemaglutinin (HA). Binding to the stem prevents a conformational change in the protein that is necessary for viral entry into the host cell, thereby preventing further infection of host cells and the rise of escape mutants.

"The head portion of hemaglutinin is highly mutable, leading to the rise of forms of the virus that can evade neutralizing antibodies," said Robert Liddington, Ph.D., professor and director, Infectious and Inflammatory Disease Center at Burnham and one of the investigators on the study. "However, the stem region of hemaglutinin is highly conserved because it undergoes a dramatic conformational change to allow entry of viral RNA into the host cell. It's very difficult to get a mutation that doesn't destroy that function, which explains why we aren't seeing escape mutants and why these antibodies neutralize such a variety of strains of influenza."

There are clear instances where human monoclonal antibodies can be used strategically for both the prevention and early treatment of influenza infection and disease. At-risk individuals, such as first responders and medical personnel, exposed family members and coworkers and patients who cannot make antibodies because of pre-existing medical conditions or advanced age, could all benefit from this new type of therapy.

 

ETA: Now 2009

 

While more costly to produce than existing influenza drugs, therapeutic antibodies can be readily manufactured and stockpiled. In the event of a pandemic, the antibodies could be used in combination with antiviral therapies to contain the outbreak until a vaccine became available. The production of a new influenza vaccine takes six to nine months using conventional methods.

 

The study is published online today,  February 22, 2009  in Nature Structural and Molecular Biology.

When will the recession / depression end? Part 20 The Dog that Didn't Bark; Economists say don't pay attention to us

Why should we be listening to economists, when so few of them saw this whole mess coming? The Canadian CBC TV Sunday Morning program put that question to two top economists - Dean Baker, of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, and James K. Galbraith of the University of Texas, son of the famed Canadian economist John Kenneth Galbraith - and ask: whose predictions should we believe now?

These were two of the small group of "minortity" economists, warning of the coming crash, who I have been tracking since the early 2000's ...[BTW, I track "outliers" on all the emerging issues that interest me...ie. I started warning clients about the imminant US  banking system collapse and housing collapse in 2006.]

Why did so few economists see this economic crisis coming? Asks the CBC TV reporter, or what I call the  Dog that Didn’t Bark question.

 

 

Here’s a transcript of what James K Galbraith said:

“…Well I think the  economics profession over that last few decades has kind of closed in on itself, it ceased to discuss history in a serious way and it basically excommunicated that relatively small number  of people, who worked on problems of financial crisis and financial instability.

So, there was no dialogue going on, the prospect was not being raised, the profession was busy congratulating itself on having solving the economic problems, on having basically come up with the right formulas for stable expansion, for the control of inflation and they had completely forgotten that the capitalist system has enormous vulnerabilities that come from of the financial sphere, and in addition to that, they were just unequipped to deal with the catastrophic malpractice that was coming from the financial sector over the last five years, they didn’t have the tools, they weren’t studying it, they were caught blind sided by it.”…[…]….Until the crisis actually broke, nobody was paying attention to us."

Dean Baker replies:

"…I was actually tipped off by Alan Greenspan, back in 2002. He was testifying before Congress and he said there was no problem, no bubble in the housing market. And I was reading his testimony and everything he said did not make any sense. He was giving explanations to why there was this sudden rise in house prices. The basic story is that we have a hundred year long history 1895-1995 where nation-wide at least, house prices had just kept pace with the overall  rate of inflation. In other words, House prices has risen at roughly the same rate as the average  other goods, car prices, clothes, gas, whatever it  might be. Suddenly beginning  in the mid 90’s, house prices began to substantially outpace the rate of inflation and by 2002 they had outpaced the rate of inflation by about  30%. And there was no explanation for it that made any sense, based on fundamentals. So to my mind, when you see a hundred year long trend broken, and there is no explanation,  that’s based on fundamentals, it was sort of crying out: Bubble! Bubble ! Bubble!  And I sort of had bubble on my mind because we had just gotten through the stock bubble, and stock crash. We had two explanations. One -this is being driven by something in the fundamentals that no one could identify or  two --the stock bubble had fed over into the housing bubble as was the case in Japan. So that was seemed to be a pretty easy call to me."

Listen to the full interview..a real eye-opener…

 

And what are most of the mainstream economists saying now..don't worry, it will all be over soon...depending on how you take that....that's what I'm worried about--Walter Derzko.

 

Walter Derzko

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related Recession / Depression Posts

When will the recession / depression end? Part 19 Put Infrastructure Where it's Needed; Ontario on the Move

When will the recession/ depression end? Part 18 Hormones and Boom and Bust Cycles

When will the recession / depression end ? Part 17 Recap from the World Economic Forum in Davos

When will the recession end? Part 16 It's all over, well sort of.

When will the recession end? Part 15 Year-end predictions for 2009 starting to come true

When will the recession end? Part 14 Four options for America's race to the bottom

When will the recession end? Part 13 Thirteen economic questions that economists can't answer

When will the recession end? Part 12 Bad times are good times for startups

When will the recession end? Part 11 Bank of Canada optimism

When will the recession end? Part 10, The Conformity Trap or Don't count on your economist for advise

When will the recession end? Part 9 Humor will signal recession /depression bottom

When will the recession end? Part 8 Lessons Learned from the last Post 9/11 recession; designing brilliant winning business models

When will the recession end? Part 7 False signals of recovery

When will this recession end? Part 6 The USA Paradox; Cheer vs Fear vs Transformation

When will the recession end? Part 5 Stop Auto Industry Bailouts, start buying Electric

When will the recession end? Part 4 The double dip housing crash in the USA

When will the recession end? Part 3 The coming collapse of the American Middle Class into an Underclass

When will this recession end ? Part 2 Do you listen to the Optimists or the Pessimists in 2009?

When will this recession end?

82 Signposts to the current Recession Depression Summary from 2008

 

© 2005-2009

Walter Derzko -"Changing the world, one idea at a time"©

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Expert, Consultant and Keynote Speaker on Emerging Smart Technologies, Innovation, Strategic Foresight, Business Development, Lateral Creative Thinking and author of an upcoming book on the Smart Economy "

The Smart Technology Blog: The Smart Economy -- Read, enjoy, explore, speculate, comment !!

To arrange for an in house presentation or briefing on smart technology see here

To explore the opportunities and threats of any new smart technology in your industry - Contact Me or explore how we can work together

• ".....Strategy without action is a day-dream; action without strategy is a nightmare"-old Japanese proverb
• ".......Ours is the age that is proud of machines that think and suspicious of men who try to." -- H. Mumford Jones
• ".......Without changing our patterns of thought, we will not be able to solve the problems we created with our current pattern of thought."  --A. Einstein
• ".......Change is difficult, but complacency and stagnation are surefire showstoppers..." --Walter Derzko

• ".......Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world; indeed, it's the only thing that ever has."  -- Margaret Mead

• ".......Small minds discuss people; Average minds discuss events; Great minds discuss ideas; --Anon

P. S. if this is your first visit to my blog, please go to our Welcome page

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Thirteen Recession wild card scenarios

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Thirteen Recession wild card scenarios

 

Most people acknowledge that we are heading into uncharted waters in this recession / depression. Expect unexpected events seems to be the rule of thumb. So how is business supposed to function and plan for the near-term future? One way to reduce uncertainty is the use scenario planning and test “wild card’ assumptions. Here’s one that we offer to clients in the Opportunity Clinic:

 

Recession Wild Card #3 -Second global run on American banks ... What would your business do, if we saw a second global run on American banks?

 

Now just wait a minute? At this point, you are likely asking yourself….”I didn’t hear about the first run on US banks…when did this happen?

I bet 99.999% of North American didn’t hear about this either, unless you are a member of the UScongress or a political news junkie and watching the American  C-Span cable channel all day long. (hat tip to several Smart Economy blog readers from around the globe, who alerted us to this meltdown event, that’s been kept secret from most of the world…) see C-Span video entitled: Rep. Kanjorski: $550 Billion Disappeared in "Electronic Run On the Banks" below.

At 2 minutes, 20 seconds into this C-Span video clip, Rep.  Paul Kanjorski from Pennsylvania explains how the Federal Reserve told members of  Congress about a "tremendous draw-down of money market accounts in the United States, to the tune of $550 billion dollars, back in September 2008." According to Kanjorski, this electronic transfer occurred over the period of just  two hours, before it was halted.

Here is a transcript of what Kanjorski actually confessed  in the video:

”Look…I was there when the secretary and the chairman of the Federal Reserve came those days and talked with members of Congress about what’s going on. .  It was about Sept 15 here are the facts and we don’t even talk about these things…. On Thursday  [Sept 15, 2008] at about  11 o’clock in  the morning,  the Federal Reserve noticed a tremendous draw down of money market accounts in the USA, to the tune of $550 Billion dollars… was being drawn out, in a matter of an hour or two. The treasury opened up its window to help . It pumped $105 billion dollars into the system. …and quickly realized  that they could not stem the tide….we were having an electronic run on the banks…they decided to close the operation....close down the money accounts, and announced a guarantee of $250,000 per account, so there wouldn’t be further panic out there and that’s what actually happened. If they had not done that, their  estimation was that by 2 o’clock that afternoon,  $5 and a half  trillion dollars would been drawn out the money market system of the United States, would have collapsed the entire economy of the United States and within 24 hours the world economy would have collapsed. Now, we talked at that time about what would have happened if that happened….. it would have been the end of our economic system and our political system”..

After some deep digging on the net and through various databases, we only found two sources that mention  this "secret financial meltdown, See full C-Span video clip here 

and Kanjorski: We came so close to complete financial collapse

 

Paul Kanjorski, who  serves on the US House Financial Services Committee and chairs its Subcommittee on Capital Markets, Insurance, and Government Sponsored Enterprises, does not provide further details.

 

Not a hint officially from the US government or the Treasury about this e-run on banks..The only sign that something was wrong, in hindsight we see in the following press release, the day after the bank run:

 

September 16, 2008 HP-1142

Remarks by Treasury Under Secretary for International Affairs David H. McCormick at Future  of Consumer Payments Conference

Washington

– Good afternoon. Thank you for that kind introduction, Martin. And thanks to you, to Bob and to Ken Chenault for the invitation to be here today. I am pleased to join with you for this conference on "the quiet revolution in money," the implications for our citizens, our economy, and financial system of the dramatic change in consumer payments. I'd like to begin by passing along the regrets of Secretary Paulson who is focused today on market developments and has asked me to speak on his behalf.

 

 

Remember-this was right after the Leahman Brothers and AIG affairs. Who got spooked? who panicked? and who was taking their  money out? The Russians? The Asians? The Gulf Petro-Sates? The Sovereign Wealth Funds? All four? Who had a total of $5 and a half trillion dollars invested in US money market accounts? We may never know for sure.

 

 

Are you shocked yet?  Did you hear about this in the mainstream American or Canadian press? Well, I didn’t either. Just goes to show you that openness and the truth were the  first casualties of this recession / depression.

Thirteen Recession wild card Scenarios

“Chance favors the prepared mind said L Pasteur.  

 

So, in the Opportunity Clinic we’ve conceived and  offer 13  “Recession wild card scenarios” that every business person, entrepreneur and entrepreneur want-to-be  should devote some thinking time to,  explore the consequences of  and consider alternative courses of action in advance of the event hitting you.

 

If  “Recession wild card scenario #6” were to happened:

• what early warning signals could I look out for?
• what circumstances could trigger each wild card scenario?
• how do I mitigate its negative impacts?
• how do I identify, cease and leverage the opportunities?
• do I have a “game plan” drawn out in advance, should each of these wild card scenarios come to pass?

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

 

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Recession wild card scenarios

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 11 of 28 Pretending and Deception as an Opportunity Space

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 10 of 28 "First Impressions” trap

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 9 of 28 The dichotomous thinking trap

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 8 of 28 Industry Architecture Opportunities

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for managing your business in a recession Part 7 of 28  Geopolitical Opportunities;

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for managing your Business in a recession Part 6 of 28 What's in your Recession Playbook?

The Opportunity Clinic; 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 5 of 28 Category Killer Innovation-India's $10 laptop

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 4 of 28 “Left Behind “Opportunities- Go Green & Go Slow

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 3 of 28 Design Opportunities- Hope or Nostalgia

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business in a Recession Part 2 of 28 Innovation or Efficiency?

The Opportunity Clinic - 28 Tactics for Managing Your Business (& surviving and thriving) in a Recession Part 1of 28

28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 12 of 28 more on the "First Impressions” trap

Last week we introduced Part 10 of 28 "First Impressions” trap. Today I'd like to offer some more examples of how to address that perception oversight.

As mentioned last week...new ventures often do not correctly anticipate real market opportunities or the best strategies of addressing them, so they are forced to adapt and modify their approach over time. This is even more critical in a recession /depression and is illustrated by a classic 1985 quote by Peter Drucker.

 “When a new venture does succeed, more often than not it is in a market other than the one it was originally intended to serve, with products and services not quite those with which it had set out, bought in large part by customers it did not even think of when it started, and used for a host of purposes besides the ones for which the products were first designed.”--Source: Drucker, P. (1985). Innovation and Entrepreneurship: Practice and Principles. New York: Harper & Row. ( p. 189)

Tactics for Overcoming the "First Impressions” trap.

The first step is a mental and perceptual one--to admit that you were wrong and go back to the drawing board to explore alternate opportunity windows. Here are some more examples from the Opportunity Clinic, which has over 350 Opportunity Scenarios or Windows in its database.

Opportunity Scenario # 92 End User Challenge

An innovation designed by a medical doctor to detect elderly patient falls was found to be too expensive ($1000) by nursing homes, and the immediate nature of the signal was seen as of limited benefit. A more extensive analysis identified the benefits to fire services involved in fighting forest fires – especially the immediate notification of a fall. Fire fighters now have this as standard equipment

(Source: Andrew Maxwell, Canadian Innovations Center (CIC) in Waterloo, Ontario, Canada)

Opportunity Scenario # 28 Primary Customer Focus Challenge

“A wireless company, interested in integrating paper and electronic systems, initially targeted hospitals in Ontario as the first (and largest) application. While this market is still the one with the most potential, the longer then anticipated sales cycles and the long lead times on decision-making in hospitals – was increasing the company’s cash burn rate and was bring in no actual revenue. This caused the company to shift focus and challenge their underlying assumptions. They started to look at  providing a solution to other segments – they chose  independent trucking companies, who could make a decision to buy the system in less than two months. They had the same paper integration concerns, when truckers were crossing the boarder and had to deal with paperwork burdens.”

(Source: Andrew Maxwell, Canadian Innovations Center (CIC) in Waterloo, Ontario Canada)

Bundling two or more Opportunity Windows

Opportunity Scenario #341 Secondary Offerings Opportunities and Opportunity Scenario #29 Circumstance Shift Opportunties

A company who was developing a commercial water purifier system, decided that the water should be store in stainless steel water bottles – due to concerns about polycarbonate bottles. While the water purifier is still in development, the water bottles themselves turned out to be of great interest to retailers, then their original product idea (the water purifier system) – and this product range became the core of a successful new business. Over a million bottles were sold in one year, when concerns about bis-phenol A surfaced in the media.

(Source: Andrew Maxwell, Canadian Innovations Center (CIC) in Waterloo, Ontario Canada)

 

OpportunityScenario #84- Channel Fit and Opportunity Scenario #86 Channel Challenge

An innovation designed for the general consumer market was planned to launch through major retailers – such as Canadian Tire, Shoppers Drug Mart etc. Upon investigation, the entrepereneur found that initially most consumers would not see the immediate benefits – limiting market success. However – individuals with comprised immune systems (such as AIDS) would immediately see the benefits – but would not create enough demand to pull the product through traditional retailer channels. As a result, a web store and web marketing campaign was seen as the initial launch strategy.

(Source: Andrew Maxwell, Canadian Innovations Center (CIC) in Waterloo, Ontario,Canada)

 To incorporate the Opportunity Clinic into your class,  business planning process or to arrange for a key note speech on Opportunity Recognition for a future meeting, conference or forum, call us at 1-416-819-9667

 

Walter Derzko

Smart Economy

Toronto

Author of the soon-to-be-released book: Hard Times Golden Opportunities.. about opportunity recognition in a recession/ depression features 45 opportunity scenarios.

Related posts in this series:

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 13 of 28 Recession wild card scenarios

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 12 of 28 more on the "First Impressions” trap

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 11 of 28 Pretending and Deception as an Opportunity Space

The Opportunity Clinic- 28 Tactics for Managing your Business in a Recession Part 10 of 28 "First Impressions” trap